General election: Labour would need record swing to win

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General election: Labour would need record swing to win

Post by newspotted »


By Peter Barnes
Senior elections and political analyst, BBC News

The Labour Party would need a record swing in votes at the next general election to win a majority in the House of Commons, according to analysis of the new electoral map.

The next election will be fought on new constituency boundaries, redrawn to reflect population changes and to try to even out voter numbers in each area.

An analysis of these changes for BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the Press Association suggests Labour needs a national swing of 12.7% to win with just a small majority.

That's considerably higher than the 10.2% achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 and higher even than the 12% achieved by Clement Attlee in 1945.

The swing from the Conservatives to Labour would need to be uniform, to follow the same pattern everywhere, with other parties seeing no change in performance since 2019.

In practice, the picture will be more complicated, so this is a rough guide. But a uniform national swing has been a reliable model for general elections in the UK over a long period of time.

Boundaries changed
Changes to the political map ahead of the next general election mean constituencies will be new or different from the last general election for millions of people.

The boundary changes could have an impact on who becomes the local MP and which party wins the UK's election overall.

You can use our tool to find out which constituency you are now in.

It will also give you an estimate of what the result would have been had these new boundaries been in place at the last general election, in 2019.

More details here.
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